Pivot
False Break Reversal
Pivot trades failed breakouts at key levels. Entries trigger on a sweep followed by rejection back inside the level; three scaled targets exit progressively as the trapped move unwinds. Backtest Q2'25–Q1'26 + live Q2'26: best PF 132.52 (MGC), combined +$6,841 backtest / +$4,622 live at 100K presets.
At a glance
Best-performing instrument per metric (max 3 from one instrument). Rolling last 12 months at 100K preset; forecast metrics from 1,500-path Monte Carlo, 3-year horizon. Viability 3y = % of MC paths that never hit the hard drawdown. Payouts : blow = payouts per one account blow over 3y. TTP = median days to first payout.
Equity curve · backtest + live
Daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance at the 100K preset (3 ct), log scale. Gray = backtest (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30).
TradingView performance summary · last 4 quarters (Q3'25 — Q2'26)
Quarterly breakdown
| Quarter | Phase | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'25 | backtest | +$368 | 80.0% | 15 | $0 |
| Q4'25 | backtest | +$2,297 | 100.0% | 19 | $0 |
| Q1'26 | backtest | +$1,412 | 100.0% | 4 | $0 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$2,635 | 100.0% | 20 | $0 |
Warm-up: strategy builds HTF levels ~3 months — Q2 2025 carries no trades by design. Drawdowns are EOD basis; intrabar peak-to-trough runs higher.
Stats · backtest
| Avg win / loss | W:L | Largest win / loss | Max DD EOD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | Avg bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $117 / $10 | 11.36 | $723 / $12 | $0 (0.0%) | 2.59 (3.96 live) | 5.0 |
Account sizing · Monte Carlo 1,500 paths × 3y
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Net/y P50 [P10–P90] | Median TTP | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50K FP | excluded at this tier | ||||
| 100K FP | 3 ct | 0.0% | $5,057 [$3,846–$6,415] | 187 d | SAFE |
| 150K FP | 4 ct | 0.0% | $6,743 [$5,129–$8,554] | 198 d | SAFE |
Equity curve · backtest + live
Daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance at the 100K preset (0.21 lot), log scale. Gray = backtest (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30).
TradingView performance summary · last 4 quarters (Q3'25 — Q2'26)
Quarterly breakdown
| Quarter | Phase | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'25 | backtest | +$0 | 0.0% | 0 | $0 |
| Q4'25 | backtest | +$912 | 100.0% | 6 | $0 |
| Q1'26 | backtest | +$1,538 | 100.0% | 15 | $0 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$1,987 | 100.0% | 20 | $0 |
Drawdowns are EOD basis; intrabar peak-to-trough runs higher.
Stats · backtest
| Avg win / loss | W:L | Largest win / loss | Max DD EOD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | Avg bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 / — | — | $543 / — | $0 (0.0%) | 2.45 (5.09 live) | 8.0 |
Account sizing · Monte Carlo 1,500 paths × 3y
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Net/y P50 [P10–P90] | Median TTP | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50K Swing | excluded at this tier | ||||
| 100K Swing | 0.21 lot | 0.0% | $3,395 [$2,545–$4,298] | 158 d | SAFE |
| 200K Swing | 0.3 lot | 0.0% | $4,850 [$3,636–$6,141] | 214 d | SAFE |
Risk disclosure
Backtest Q2'25–Q1'26 plus live Q2'26 at the stated presets. Past performance, simulated or live, does not guarantee future results. Futures and CFD trading involves substantial risk of loss; prop-firm accounts add breach rules (daily/EOD drawdown) that can terminate an account regardless of long-term edge. Size accordingly.
How Pivot works
Pivot trades the failed breakout. Key levels act as stop magnets — price often pushes just far enough through to harvest clustered stops before reversing. The strategy is built around capturing that sweep-and-reverse, not the breakout itself.
Setups that don't fail are skipped. When the failure prints — sweep, then rejection back inside the level — the trade is opened, and three scaled targets (T1/T2/T3) exit as the trapped move unwinds.
The result: zero modeled blow rate across both MGC variants (100K and 150K Futures Prop). Trade-off is long time-to-payout — P50 TTP 331d on 100K MGC, 459d on 150K MGC — and modest BEST/y by Trace/Reject standards ($5.4k on 100K MGC P90). Pivot is a build-the-base strategy, not a quick-funded one. The XAU Forex Prop variant has lower viability (66.5%) and should be operated with realistic expectations — disclosed transparently.
How these numbers were calculated
Trade counts, win rates, profit factors, drawdown values come directly from TradingView Strategy Tester for the baseline preset. Verify by running the strategy in your own TradingView after purchase — numbers match 1:1.
DD%, SL%, Pass:Blow ratio and percentile breakdowns are computed from the same trade list using industry-standard methodology. Reproducible in Excel or Python.
Time-to-payout, Pay/y, Net $/y, Blow rate, and Viability come from a 1,500-path Monte Carlo v6 simulation over a 3-year horizon. Block bootstrap (5-day blocks) preserves serial autocorrelation of trade streaks.
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