R-Multiple & Breakeven Win Rate Calculator
Enter average winner, average loser, and commission. See your R-multiple, breakeven win rate, and expectancy at common win-rate scenarios.
Expectancy per trade at common win rates
Expectancy = (WR × net winner) − ((1 − WR) × net loser). Negative values mean the win rate is below your breakeven; positive values are your edge per trade.
| Win Rate | Net expectancy / trade | Status |
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How to read this
R-multiple is the ratio of your average winner to your average loser. A 2:1 R-multiple means winners are twice as big as losers, so you only need to win more than 33% of the time (gross) to break even. A 1:1 R-multiple requires you to win more than 50%.
Commission drag is often underestimated. Commission is deducted from winners (effective winner = W − commission) and added to losers (effective loser = L + commission). On small-account high-frequency trading, this can shift breakeven by 5–10 percentage points — the difference between a profitable strategy and a losing one.
The strategic implication: higher R-multiples need lower win rates to be profitable but require longer losing streaks to tolerate. Lower R-multiples need higher win rates but offer smoother equity curves. See strategy type tradeoffs for how this plays out across different strategy families.
Related
- Profit factor explained — another way to measure expectancy
- Realistic backtest commissions and slippage — how to model costs honestly
- Risk of ruin — how WR and R-multiple combine to define survival
- Monte Carlo Simulator — stress-test your numbers across 1,000 paths
Frequently asked questions
What's a good R-multiple for trading?
There's no single “good” R-multiple — it depends on your strategy type. Trend-following typically runs 2:1 to 3:1 R-multiples with 35–45% win rates. Mean-reversion strategies often run 1:1 or worse R-multiples with 65–80% win rates. Breakout strategies vary widely. What matters is the combination of R-multiple and win rate producing positive expectancy after commissions.
How does commission affect breakeven win rate?
Commission is deducted from winners and added to losers, so it shifts breakeven WR higher. The effect is most severe at lower R-multiples and higher trade frequencies. A 1:1 R-multiple with $4 commission on $100 winners and losers shifts breakeven from 50.0% to 52.0%. At 1:0.5 R-multiple, the shift is larger. Always model commissions explicitly — never assume gross numbers represent net performance.
Should I optimize for higher R-multiple or higher win rate?
Neither in isolation — expectancy is what matters. A 30% WR with 4:1 R-multiple has the same expectancy per trade as a 60% WR with 1:1 R-multiple, but the equity curves and psychological demands are very different. Match the R-multiple/WR profile to your psychology and your prop firm's constraints (trailing DD, time limits).