Trace
Asymmetric R-multiple
Trace targets asymmetric R-multiple setups: small initial stops paired with relatively large profit targets. The result is a strategy that can sustain a lower win rate (40–50%) while still producing a strong profit factor through average win >> average loss.
50K MGC · 2 ct
150K MGC
Forex Prop XAU
Forex Prop XAU
Forex Prop XAU
TV Performance Summary · Trace MNQ
12-month sample · Jun 2025 — May 2026Quarterly breakdown
net · win rate · trades · max DD* Q2 2026 partial (through May 29). Drawdowns are end-of-day (EOD) basis — full-sample EOD max DD $1,258; intrabar peak-to-trough on the chart runs higher.
| Avg Win / Avg Loss | $250 / $89 | W/L Ratio | 2.81 |
| Largest Win / Loss | $2,152 / $1,101 | Max DD (EOD) | $1,258 (1.26%) |
| Sharpe / Sortino | 0.53 / 1.48 | Calmar / Avg bars | 5.46 / 12 |
TV Performance Summary · Trace MGC
12-month sample · Jun 2025 — May 2026Quarterly breakdown
net · win rate · trades · max DD* Q2 2026 partial (through May 29). Drawdowns are end-of-day (EOD) basis — full-sample EOD max DD $4,452; intrabar peak-to-trough on the chart runs higher.
| Avg Win / Avg Loss | $953 / $408 | W/L Ratio | 2.34 |
| Largest Win / Loss | $1,768 / $736 | Max DD (EOD) | $4,452 (4.45%) |
| Sharpe / Sortino | 0.78 / — | Calmar / Avg bars | 9.1 / 13 |
TV Performance Summary · Trace NAS
12-month sample · Jun 2025 — May 2026Quarterly breakdown
net · win rate · trades · max DD* Q2 2026 partial (through May 29). Drawdowns are end-of-day (EOD) basis — full-sample EOD max DD $4,649; intrabar peak-to-trough on the chart runs higher.
| Avg Win / Avg Loss | $864 / $358 | W/L Ratio | 2.41 |
| Largest Win / Loss | $663 / $616 | Max DD (EOD) | $4,649 (4.65%) |
| Sharpe / Sortino | 0.22 / 0.41 | Calmar / Avg bars | 2.2 / 12 |
TV Performance Summary · Trace XAU
12-month sample · Jun 2025 — May 2026Quarterly breakdown
net · win rate · trades · max DD* Q2 2026 partial (through May 29). Drawdowns are end-of-day (EOD) basis — full-sample EOD max DD $4,249; intrabar peak-to-trough on the chart runs higher.
| Avg Win / Avg Loss | $1,386 / $471 | W/L Ratio | 2.94 |
| Largest Win / Loss | $1,735 / $794 | Max DD (EOD) | $4,249 (4.25%) |
| Sharpe / Sortino | 0.66 / 2.39 | Calmar / Avg bars | 6.33 / 11 |
Account sizing
Maximum position size per account that satisfies three filters: empirical drawdown ≤ hard DD limit, single SL impact within daily limit, Monte Carlo blow rate ≤ 15%/y. Two percentiles show median (P50) and best-case (P90) outcomes over a 1,500-path simulation × 3-year horizon. Net $/y is annualized payouts after profit split (90% Futures Prop, 85% Forex Prop).
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Viability | Pass:Blow | Median (P50) | Best (P90) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTP | Pay/y | Net/y | TTP | Pay/y | Net/y | |||||
| Futures Prop EOD · MNQ | ||||||||||
| 100K | 1 ct | 3.3% | 94.8% | 9.9:1 | 336d | 7.7 | $3,412 | 203d | 13.3 | $5,048 |
| 150K | 2 ct | 11.3% | 90.0% | 3.0:1 | 247d | 9.7 | $6,885 | 147d | 16.0 | $10,511 |
| Futures Prop EOD · MGC | ||||||||||
| 50K | 2 ct | 15.0% | 96.8% | 2.5:1 | 66d | 28.7 | $13,757 | 38d | 35.7 | $17,543 |
| 100K | 3 ct | 14.7% | 96.9% | 2.6:1 | 80d | 29.3 | $20,713 | 48d | 36.3 | $26,372 |
| 150K | 4 ct | 9.0% | 98.1% | 4.0:1 | 87d | 30.0 | $28,533 | 54d | 36.7 | $35,240 |
| Forex Prop (optimized for DD $5,000) · NAS | ||||||||||
| 100K Forex Prop | 5 lot | 2.1% | 73.1% | 11.7:1 | 444d | 2.3 | $1,623 | 253d | 6.3 | $5,395 |
| Forex Prop (optimized for DD $5,000) · XAU | ||||||||||
| 100K Forex Prop | 0.30 lot | 0.6% | 99.9% | 60.0:1 | 156d | 10.3 | $18,278 | 89d | 12.7 | $24,619 |
Sizing matched to Futures Prop EOD Trailing close-of-day rules. Static EOD accounts inherit identical sizing safely; Trailing intraday accounts should drop one tier (e.g. 100K trailing intraday → use 50K preset). Monte Carlo v6: 1,500 paths × 3-year horizon, block bootstrap of daily P&L with 5-day blocks, 25% dropout for variance robustness. P10/P50/P90 are 10th/50th/90th percentile across paths. Amber-highlighted Blow/y values exceed the 10% caution threshold.
How Trace works
Trace enters on consolidation breakouts with a tight initial stop placed just inside the consolidation. The profit target is set at 2–3R based on the measured-move projection of the consolidation range. When the structure works, the payoff dwarfs the risk; when it fails, the stop is small and quick.
Trace runs on all four instruments (MNQ, MGC, NAS, XAU) with per-instrument sizing tuned to each instrument's volatility profile. MGC variants are the highest-frequency in the strategy — ~75–90 trades per year — due to gold's tendency to consolidate-then-break.
Three MGC variants (50K, 100K, 150K) cluster around 9–15%/y blow rate — near the SAFE threshold but below it. These are higher-velocity variants with strong BEST/y potential ($35.2k on 150K MGC P90). The trade-off vs. Anchor/Hook: more bursty equity curves.
XAU Forex Prop is the most reliable Trace variant: blow 0.6%/y, viability 99.9%, Pass:Blow 60:1, BEST/y $24.6k. The Forex Prop daily-loss buffer combined with XAU's clean consolidation patterns produces an exceptionally robust setup.
How these numbers were calculated
Trade counts, win rates, profit factors, drawdown values come directly from TradingView Strategy Tester for the baseline preset. Verify by running the strategy in your own TV after purchase — numbers match 1:1.
DD%, SL%, Pass:Blow ratio and percentile breakdowns are computed from the same trade list using industry-standard methodology. Reproducible in Excel or Python.
Time-to-payout, Pay/y, Net $/y, Blow rate, and Viability come from a 1,500-path Monte Carlo v6 simulation over a 3-year horizon. Block bootstrap (5-day blocks) preserves serial autocorrelation of trade streaks.
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