Trace
Asymmetric R-multiple
Trace targets asymmetric R-multiple setups: small initial stops paired with relatively large profit targets. The result is a strategy that can sustain a lower win rate (40–50%) while still producing a strong profit factor through average win >> average loss. Backtest Q2'25–Q1'26 + live Q2'26: best PF 3.85 (XAU), trailing 12 months (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026) +$79,307 combined · live since Q2'26 +$26,988 at 100K presets.
At a glance
Best-performing instrument per metric (max 3 from one instrument). Rolling last 12 months at 100K preset; forecast metrics from 1,500-path Monte Carlo, 3-year horizon. Viability 3y = % of MC paths that never hit the hard drawdown. Payouts : blow = payouts per one account blow over 3y. TTP = median days to first payout.
Equity curve · backtest + live
Daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance at the 100K preset (1 ct), log scale. Gray = backtest (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31).
TradingView performance summary · trailing 12 months (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026)
Quarterly breakdown · full history since Q2'25, live since Q2'26
| Quarter | Phase | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | backtest | +$1,694 | 50.0% | 18 | $273 |
| Q3'25 | backtest | +$1,883 | 44.9% | 49 | $348 |
| Q4'25 | backtest | +$1,986 | 44.7% | 38 | $1,280 |
| Q1'26 | backtest | +$6,097 | 58.6% | 29 | $1,154 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$2,466 | 50.0% | 26 | $1,049 |
| Q3'26 live · 1 mo | live | +$611 | 44.4% | 9 | $460 |
Drawdowns are EOD basis; intrabar peak-to-trough runs higher. Q3'26 is accruing (1 of 3 months).
Stats · trailing 12 months
| Avg win / loss | W:L | Largest win / loss | Max DD EOD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | Avg bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 / $-140 | -2.31 | $1,487 / $-546 | $1,280 (1.28%) | 2.75 | 3.80 | 9.7 | 6.5 |
TradeZella merges partial exits into one position, so its trade count runs below the TradingView trade list; net P&L matches to the dollar.
Account sizing · Monte Carlo 1,500 paths × 3y
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Net/y P50 (MC) | Median TTP | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50K FP | 1 ct | 0.69% | $5,818 | 82 d | SAFE |
| 100K FP | 1 ct | 0.09% | $5,818 | 169 d | SAFE |
| 150K FP | 2 ct | 0.31% | $11,636 | 126 d | SAFE |
Equity curve · backtest + live
Daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance at the 100K preset (2 ct), log scale. Gray = backtest (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31).
TradingView performance summary · trailing 12 months (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026)
Quarterly breakdown · full history since Q2'25, live since Q2'26
| Quarter | Phase | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | backtest | −$1,870 | 22.7% | 22 | $3,935 |
| Q3'25 | backtest | +$2,310 | 35.3% | 34 | $632 |
| Q4'25 | backtest | +$4,357 | 42.4% | 33 | $1,126 |
| Q1'26 | backtest | +$2,383 | 50.0% | 18 | $721 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$3,385 | 42.9% | 21 | $1,012 |
| Q3'26 live · 1 mo | live | −$2,901 | 0.0% | 8 | $2,901 |
Drawdowns are EOD basis; intrabar peak-to-trough runs higher. Q3'26 is accruing (1 of 3 months).
Stats · trailing 12 months
| Avg win / loss | W:L | Largest win / loss | Max DD EOD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | Avg bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $522 / $-170 | -3.07 | $1,290 / $-651 | $1,126 (1.13%) | 2.45 | 3.31 | 11.0 | 4.9 |
TradeZella merges partial exits into one position, so its trade count runs below the TradingView trade list; net P&L matches to the dollar.
Account sizing · Monte Carlo 1,500 paths × 3y
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Net/y P50 (MC) | Median TTP | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50K FP | 1 ct | 0.04% | $2,865 | 168 d | SAFE |
| 100K FP | 2 ct | 0.27% | $5,730 | 168 d | SAFE |
| 150K FP | 4 ct | 1.00% | $11,459 | 124 d | SAFE |
Equity curve · backtest + live
Daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance at the 100K preset (6 lot), log scale. Gray = backtest (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31).
TradingView performance summary · trailing 12 months (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026)
Quarterly breakdown · full history since Q2'25, live since Q2'26
| Quarter | Phase | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | backtest | +$0 | — | 0 | $0 |
| Q3'25 | backtest | +$3,518 | 50.0% | 18 | $1,580 |
| Q4'25 | backtest | +$5,697 | 39.6% | 48 | $2,017 |
| Q1'26 | backtest | +$4,170 | 38.7% | 31 | $3,542 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$6,100 | 41.7% | 24 | $2,943 |
| Q3'26 live · 1 mo | live | +$5,741 | 40.0% | 15 | $1,614 |
Drawdowns are EOD basis; intrabar peak-to-trough runs higher. Q3'26 is accruing (1 of 3 months).
Stats · trailing 12 months
| Avg win / loss | W:L | Largest win / loss | Max DD EOD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | Avg bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,075 / $-482 | -2.23 | $2,289 / $-1,856 | $3,542 (3.54%) | 1.68 | 2.28 | 5.5 | 9.1 |
TradeZella merges partial exits into one position, so its trade count runs below the TradingView trade list; net P&L matches to the dollar.
Account sizing · Monte Carlo 1,500 paths × 3y
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Net/y P50 (MC) | Median TTP | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50K FP | 1.7 lot | 0.02% | $2,249 | 303 d | SAFE |
| 100K FP | 6 lot | 0.91% | $7,939 | 174 d | SAFE |
| 200K FP | 12 lot | 0.89% | $15,877 | 174 d | SAFE |
Equity curve · backtest + live
Daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance at the 100K preset (0.3 lot), log scale. Gray = backtest (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31).
TradingView performance summary · trailing 12 months (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026)
Quarterly breakdown · full history since Q2'25, live since Q2'26
| Quarter | Phase | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | backtest | +$3,430 | 57.1% | 7 | $639 |
| Q3'25 | backtest | +$682 | 23.1% | 13 | $1,140 |
| Q4'25 | backtest | +$3,750 | 38.9% | 18 | $2,078 |
| Q1'26 | backtest | +$19,022 | 77.8% | 9 | $450 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$11,501 | 63.6% | 11 | $2,649 |
| Q3'26 live · 1 mo | live | +$85 | 25.0% | 4 | $1,215 |
Drawdowns are EOD basis; intrabar peak-to-trough runs higher. Q3'26 is accruing (1 of 3 months).
Stats · trailing 12 months
| Avg win / loss | W:L | Largest win / loss | Max DD EOD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | Avg bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,967 / $-454 | -4.33 | $4,338 / $-1,487 | $2,649 (2.65%) | 2.68 | 4.39 | 13.2 | 15.0 |
TradeZella merges partial exits into one position, so its trade count runs below the TradingView trade list; net P&L matches to the dollar.
Account sizing · Monte Carlo 1,500 paths × 3y
| Account | Qty | Blow/y | Net/y P50 (MC) | Median TTP | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50K FP | 0.15 lot | 0.00% | $7,463 | 107 d | SAFE |
| 100K FP | 0.3 lot | 0.00% | $14,926 | 107 d | SAFE |
| 200K FP | 0.6 lot | 0.00% | $29,851 | 107 d | SAFE |
Risk disclosure
Backtest Q2'25–Q1'26 plus live Q2'26 at the stated presets. Past performance, simulated or live, does not guarantee future results. Futures and CFD trading involves substantial risk of loss; prop-firm accounts add breach rules (daily/EOD drawdown) that can terminate an account regardless of long-term edge. Size accordingly.
How Trace works
Trace enters on consolidation breakouts with a tight initial stop placed just inside the consolidation. The profit target is set at 2–3R based on the measured-move projection of the consolidation range. When the structure works, the payoff dwarfs the risk; when it fails, the stop is small and quick.
Trace runs on all four instruments (MNQ, MGC, NAS, XAU) with per-instrument sizing tuned to each instrument's volatility profile. MGC variants are the highest-frequency in the strategy — ~75–90 trades per year — due to gold's tendency to consolidate-then-break.
Three MGC variants (50K, 100K, 150K) cluster around 9–15%/y blow rate — near the SAFE threshold but below it. These are higher-velocity variants with strong net potential ($37.0k on MGC, 12mo backtest). The trade-off vs. Anchor/Hook: more bursty equity curves.
XAU Forex Prop is the most reliable Trace variant: blow 0.6%/y, viability 99.9%, Pass:Blow 60:1, BEST/y $24.6k. The Forex Swing daily-loss buffer combined with XAU's clean consolidation patterns produces an exceptionally robust setup.
How these numbers were calculated
Trade counts, win rates, profit factors, drawdown values come directly from TradingView Strategy Tester for the baseline preset. Verify by running the strategy in your own TradingView after purchase — numbers match 1:1.
DD%, SL%, Pass:Blow ratio and percentile breakdowns are computed from the same trade list using industry-standard methodology. Reproducible in Excel or Python.
Time-to-payout, Pay/y, Net $/y, Blow rate, and Viability come from a 1,500-path Monte Carlo v6 simulation over a 3-year horizon. Block bootstrap (5-day blocks) preserves serial autocorrelation of trade streaks.
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