What 12,000 backtests reveal about prop firm payouts

Transcript

most traders ask how much will i make. after twelve thousand backtests, here's the question that actually matters. we took eight portfolios and ran each through fifteen hundred simulated paths. twelve thousand account-years. instead of asking what they return, we tracked three things. how many payouts a year, how many days to the first one, and how often the account blew before it ever paid.

here's what surprised us. payout frequency and blow risk are glued together. the portfolios that paid out most often were the same ones that blew most often. you don't get high frequency and high survival by sizing up. you get both levers pulled at once.

the only exception is books whose strategies don't draw down at the same time. decorrelation is the one thing that buys you frequency without paying for it in risk.

the hidden cost is time. the most defensive account made you wait over four months before it paid anything. the aggressive one paid in under a month. when you pick a sizing profile, you're also choosing how long you sit with an account that's produced nothing yet.

we're not saying defensive is right and aggressive is reckless. they're answers to different questions. but most people optimize for the fast big withdrawal. and that's the exact profile least likely to survive to collect it. the payout you can repeat beats the one you blow before you reach. full breakdown's on the blog.

Read the full write-up

• What 12,000 Backtests Reveal About Prop Firm Payouts
• What Share of Funded Accounts Blow? The Annual Data

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All figures are hypothetical or from live-tracked accounts as stated in the video. Past and simulated performance does not guarantee future results. This is educational content, not financial advice.