Backtest: 2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31 · Live: 2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30 (full quarter)
Anchor MNQ 4 ct + Reject MGC 1 ct — single 100K Futures Prop account, one strategy per instrument.
About. 100K-Balanced is the risk-first variant of its tier: composition and sizing chosen to keep blow rate low and the equity path steady while preserving a solidly positive interquartile range.
When to use. Your default deployment for this tier. Lowest blow rate of the tier variants; move to the Growth variant once the workflow is proven.
At a glance
Rolling last 12 months at 100K preset; forecast metrics from 1,500-path Monte Carlo, 3-year horizon. Viability 3y = % of MC paths that never hit the hard drawdown. Payouts : blow = payouts per one account blow over 3y. TTP = median days to first payout.
Equity curve · backtest + live
Joint daily P&L applied to the $100,000 starting balance, log scale. Gray = pre-publication (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30), right of the “LIVE →” marker. Dotted red = hard DD floor ($97,000); dotted green = eval target ($106,000).
Quarterly breakdown
Q2’25–Q1’26 pre-publication · Q2’26 live. Portfolio as sized.
| Quarter | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | +$2,805 | 80.0% | 20 | $246 |
| Q3'25 | +$1,709 | 72.4% | 58 | $346 |
| Q4'25 | +$5,204 | 80.0% | 50 | $1,188 |
| Q1'26 | +$5,428 | 76.7% | 43 | $605 |
| Q2'26 live | +$2,006 | 95.2% | 21 | $226 |
What's running
| Strategy | Qty | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor MNQ | 4 ct | |
| Reject MGC | 1 ct |
Full metrics
Net / yr range · P25–P75 (1,500-path Monte Carlo)
| Percentile | Net / yr | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| P25 | $9.9k | Weak year — bottom quartile of simulated paths |
| P50 | $11.2k | Median expectation |
| P75 | $12.3k | Strong year — top quartile |
Day-level performance
Risk-adjusted ratios
How these numbers were calculated
Trade counts, win rates, profit factors and drawdown come directly from the TradingView Strategy Tester for the presets shown. Live Q2’26 figures are live-tracked and modeled results. Both reproduce 1:1.
DD%, pace and percentile breakdowns are computed from the same trade list using standard methodology — reproducible in Excel or Python.
Time-to-payout, Net $/yr ranges and modeled blow rate come from a 1,500-path Monte Carlo over a 3-year horizon. Block bootstrap (5-day blocks) preserves streak autocorrelation.
Risk disclosure
100K-Balanced's blow rate is 0.09% per year. Empirical maximum drawdown on the backtest (Apr 2025 — Mar 2026) was $1,188 — 39.6% of the hard DD budget; live-quarter max DD $226. The lower-quartile (P25) outcome is $9.9k/yr. Trade-WR 76.6% ≈ 77 of 100 trades profitable. Day-WR 70.0%.
Other portfolios
All 12 configurations. Click any to view its detail page.
Get 100K-Balanced + everything else.
The Ultimate tier includes all 7 strategies on all 4 instruments plus every published portfolio configuration — with sizing presets, TradingView invite access and monthly updates.