Backtest: 2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31 · Live: 2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31 (Q2 full + July, accruing)
Anchor MNQ 6 ct + Trace MGC 2 ct — single 150K Futures Prop account, one strategy per instrument.
About. 150K-Balanced is the risk-first variant of its tier: composition and sizing chosen to keep blow rate low and the equity path steady while preserving a solidly positive interquartile range.
When to use. Your default deployment for this tier. Lowest blow rate of the tier variants; move to the Growth variant once the workflow is proven.
At a glance
Rolling last 12 months at 100K preset; forecast metrics from 1,500-path Monte Carlo, 3-year horizon. Viability 3y = % of MC paths that never hit the hard drawdown. Payouts : blow = payouts per one account blow over 3y. TTP = median days to first payout.
Equity curve · backtest + live
Joint daily P&L applied to the $150,000 starting balance, log scale. Gray = pre-publication (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-07-31), right of the “LIVE →” marker. Dotted red = hard DD floor ($145,500); dotted green = eval target ($159,000).
Quarterly breakdown
Q2’25–Q1’26 pre-publication · live since Q2’26 · Q3’26 accruing (1 of 3 months). Portfolio as sized.
| Quarter | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | +$7,596 | 65.8% | 38 | $753 |
| Q3'25 | +$5,546 | 51.3% | 78 | $1,050 |
| Q4'25 | +$10,101 | 61.1% | 72 | $3,696 |
| Q1'26 | +$19,486 | 67.7% | 65 | $1,912 |
| Q2'26 | +$7,023 | 60.0% | 35 | $2,098 |
| Q3'26 · 1 mo | +$4,686 | 66.7% | 15 | $920 |
What's running
| Strategy | Qty | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor MNQ | 6 ct | |
| Trace MGC | 2 ct |
TradeZella merges partial exits into one position, so its trade count runs below the TradingView trade list; net P&L matches to the dollar.
Full metrics
Net / yr range · P25–P75 (1,500-path Monte Carlo)
| Percentile | Net / yr | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| P25 | $28.0k | Weak year — bottom quartile of simulated paths |
| P50 | $31.8k | Median expectation |
| P75 | $35.4k | Strong year — top quartile |
Day-level performance
Risk-adjusted ratios
How these numbers were calculated
Trade counts, win rates, profit factors and drawdown come directly from the TradingView Strategy Tester for the presets shown. Live-phase figures (since Q2’26, through Jul’26) are live-tracked and modeled results. Both reproduce 1:1.
DD%, pace and percentile breakdowns are computed from the same trade list using standard methodology — reproducible in Excel or Python.
Time-to-payout, Net $/yr ranges and modeled blow rate come from a 1,500-path Monte Carlo over a 3-year horizon. Block bootstrap (5-day blocks) preserves streak autocorrelation.
Risk disclosure
150K-Balanced's blow rate is 4.51% per year. Empirical maximum drawdown on the backtest (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026) was $3,696 — 82.1% of the hard DD budget; live-quarter max DD $2,098. The lower-quartile (P25) outcome is $28.0k/yr. Trade-WR 61.3% ≈ 61 of 100 trades profitable. Day-WR 59.5%.
Other portfolios
All 12 configurations. Click any to view its detail page.
Get 150K-Balanced + everything else.
The Ultimate tier includes all 8 strategies on all 4 instruments plus every published portfolio configuration — with sizing presets, TradingView invite access and monthly updates.