Total Apr 2025 – Sep 2026 · live layer = real account at the same presets since Apr 2026
Anchor MNQ 6 ct + Trace MGC 2 ct — single 150K Futures Prop account, one position per strategy.
About. 150K-Balanced is the risk-first variant of its tier: composition and sizing chosen to keep blow rate low and the equity path steady while preserving a solidly positive interquartile range.
When to use. Your default deployment for this tier. Lowest blow rate of the tier variants; move to the Growth variant once the workflow is proven.
At a glance
2.50 PF · 62.8% Win rate · $3,082 Max DD (EOD) · 3.57 Sharpe
Total Apr 2025 – Sep 2026 as sized; forecast metrics: Monte Carlo, 1,500 paths, 3-year horizon, input Apr 2025 – Sep 2026. Viability 3y = % of MC paths that never hit the hard drawdown. Payout potential : blow = full payout units reached in profit per one account blow over 3y (potential, not a payout schedule). TTP = median days to first payout unit.
150K-Balanced fits one account. The Playbook covers all of them.
Every portfolio configuration side by side — the figures above, the composition and the sizing per tier. One PDF, then our letters with what the systems did.
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Equity curve · modeled + live
Joint daily P&L applied to the $150,000 starting balance, log scale. Gray = modeled (2025-04-01 → 2026-03-31); accent = live (2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30), right of the “LIVE →” marker. Dotted red = hard DD floor ($145,500); dotted green = eval target ($159,000).
Quarterly breakdown
Q2’25–Q1’26 modeled · live since Q2’26 (real account, through Sep 2026). Portfolio as sized.
| Quarter | Layer | Net | WR | Trades | Max DD (EOD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'25 | modeled | +$6,922 | 68.4% | 38 | $1,095 |
| Q3'25 | modeled | +$5,214 | 54.3% | 70 | $1,218 |
| Q4'25 | modeled | +$8,270 | 61.9% | 63 | $3,082 |
| Q1'26 | modeled | +$18,468 | 71.4% | 56 | $1,507 |
| Q2'26 live | live | +$3,754 | 64.3% | 28 | $2,100 |
| Q3'26 live | live | +$5,068 | 60.9% | 46 | $1,702 |
What's running
| Strategy | Qty | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor MNQ | 6 ct | standalone |
| Trace MGC | 2 ct | standalone |
TradeZella merges partial exits into one position, so its trade count runs below the TradingView trade list; net P&L matches to the dollar.
Full metrics
Net / yr range · P25–P75 (1,500-path Monte Carlo)
| Percentile | Net / yr | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| P25 | $19.3k | Weak year — bottom quartile of simulated paths |
| P50 | $21.5k | Median expectation |
| P75 | $23.8k | Strong year — top quartile |
Day-level performance
Risk-adjusted ratios · total Apr 2025 – Sep 2026
Modeled Apr 2025 – Mar 2026: Sharpe 4.30, PF 2.94, max DD $3,082 · Live Apr 2026 – Sep 2026: Sharpe 2.07, PF 1.75, max DD $2,222
How these numbers were calculated
Trade counts, win rates, profit factors and drawdown come directly from the TradingView Strategy Tester for the presets shown. Live-phase figures (Apr 2026 – Sep 2026) are real-account results at the same presets. Both reproduce 1:1.
DD%, vs-modeled ratios and percentile breakdowns are computed from the same trade list using standard methodology — reproducible in Excel or Python.
Time-to-payout, payout potential, Net $/yr ranges and blow rate come from a 1,500-path Monte Carlo over a 3-year horizon (input Apr 2025 – Sep 2026). Block bootstrap (5-day blocks) preserves streak autocorrelation.
Risk disclosure
150K-Balanced’s Monte Carlo blow rate is 0.36% per year. Maximum drawdown over the total window (Apr 2025 – Sep 2026) was $3,082 — 68.5% of the hard DD budget. The lower-quartile (P25) outcome is $19.3k/yr. Trade-WR 62.8% ≈ 63 of 100 trades profitable. Day-WR 58%. Past performance, modeled or live, does not guarantee future results.
Other portfolios
All 15 configurations plus the PVE Index. Click any to view its detail page.
Get 150K-Balanced + everything else.
The Ultimate tier includes all 10 strategies on all 4 instruments plus every published portfolio configuration — with sizing presets, TradingView invite access and monthly updates.
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This month’s closed trades, newest first, grouped by day, with the total per portfolio — updated twice a week. Plus the Playbook.
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